Centrists 1 - Obama 0

Sorry to say it, but Obama was very unimpressive in dealing with the Stimulus bill. He allowed the moderate Dems and Republicans in the Senate to establish the tone of the debate. As a result, the hard work that the House put into a fiscal spending approach was aborted. Hey Liberals, you allowed Joe Lieberman to eat your lunch... again! Hey Bambi, why is fiscal policy important to replace the decline in private sector spending? The Stimulus was always going to be too small, but the White House allowed the mushy middle to turn it into a big fat $800 billion nothing.

Praise song for the day

The following is a transcript of the inaugural poem recited by Elizabeth Alexander, as provided by CQ transcriptions.

Praise song for the day.

Each day we go about our business, walking past each other, catching each others' eyes or not, about to speak or speaking. All about us is noise. All about us is noise and bramble, thorn and din, each one of our ancestors on our tongues. Someone is stitching up a hem, darning a hole in a uniform, patching a tire, repairing the things in need of repair.

Someone is trying to make music somewhere with a pair of wooden spoons on an oil drum with cello, boom box, harmonica, voice.

A woman and her son wait for the bus.

A farmer considers the changing sky; A teacher says, "Take out your pencils. Begin."

We encounter each other in words, words spiny or smooth, whispered or declaimed; words to consider, reconsider.

We cross dirt roads and highways that mark the will of someone and then others who said, "I need to see what's on the other side; I know there's something better down the road."

We need to find a place where we are safe; We walk into that which we cannot yet see.

Say it plain, that many have died for this day. Sing the names of the dead who brought us here, who laid the train tracks, raised the bridges, picked the cotton and the lettuce, built brick by brick the glittering edifices they would then keep clean and work inside of.

Praise song for struggle; praise song for the day. Praise song for every hand-lettered sign; The figuring it out at kitchen tables.

Some live by "Love thy neighbor as thy self."

Others by first do no harm, or take no more than you need.

What if the mightiest word is love, love beyond marital, filial, national. Love that casts a widening pool of light. Love with no need to preempt grievance.

In today's sharp sparkle, this winter air, anything can be made, any sentence begun.

On the brink, on the brim, on the cusp -- praise song for walking forward in that light.

You had me at hello, Mr. President, you had me at hello...

What a speech.  I don't even know what to say.  I need to watch it a couple more times before I write any more on it.  Here are some lines that stick out...

"In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom."

---

"What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end."

---

"So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people: 'Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it].'

"America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations."

Food for Thought

"The liberal candidate may not win, but the conservative candidate has got to become more liberal. The drift of humane society is in that direction."

-Bob Eckhardt, 1962

A brief return from hiatus for this... too good to be true!

Sometimes events occur that demand putting aside planned procedure to address them immediately. George W. Bush ducking not one, but two shoes deserves such an approach. Enjoy, I did.

Hilarious!!!

Obama Win Causes Obsessive Supporters To Realize How Empty Their Lives Are

More cabinet rumoring...

It's officially official:
1. Rahm Emanuel is in as COS
2. David Axelrod is in a "Senior Advisor" (nice generic title)
3. Transition economic advisors will be Robert Reich, Larry Summers, Warren Buffet, Bob Rubin, Governor Granholm, Paul Volcker, David Bonior, Roel Campos, William Daley, Roger Ferguson, Anne Mulcahy, Richard Parsons, Penny Pritzker, Eric Schmidt, Laura Tyson, and Antonio Villaraigosa (who Lego my Ego refers to as Villagrossa)

From the realm of idle rumoring:
1. Tom Daschle for HHS
2. Max Cleland for Army Secretary
3. John Kerry is lobbying for Secretary of State
4. Chuck Hagel for DOD
5. Bill Richardson for State
6. Deval Patrick for AG
7. Howard Dean for HHS

Here is my question; if every Democratic governor in the U.S. Goes into the cabinet, will there be any Democrats left to run the states???

This just in...

According to the Portland Oregonian blog (Michelle Roberts) political analyst Tim Hibbitts is predicting that Democrat Jeff Merkley will upset Senator Gordon Smith. He based this prediction based on outstanding votes to be counted. As of right now only 56% of Multnomah County (Portland) has been counted and is breaking sharply for the challenger.

Nothing written in stone!

Also, Senator Coleman and Al Franken are headed to a re-count with Coleman leading by 800 votes. More on this to come...

Update: the state has explained how they are recounting 3 million votes. Coleman has, in the interim declared victory. A bit premature, don't you think Normie?

The President-elect's cabinet

So far I am hearing:
1. Rahm Emanuel for Chief-of-Staff (I believe this is confirmed)
2. Napolitano, Pea and Daley for transition team
3. Gov. Napolitano for Attorney General (this would be a mistake, we need her in Phoenix),
4. RFK, Jr. for EPA Administrator (asked if he would take it, RFK said: "if asked, I will serve)
5. Jon Corzine for Treasury Secretary (I don't buy this)
6. Governor Rendell for DOE (I don't buy this either)
7. Vilsack for Agriculture
8. Steve Westly for DOE
9. Senator Lugar for Secretary of State (this would be a great pick)
10. Caroline Kennedy for Ed Secretary

I would urge caution. Most of this is likely wishful thinking mixed with hangover. Time will tell.

The speech heard 'round the world!

Illegal gay people...

It looks like California will pass the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. Statewide it is standing at 52-48 for it. I am particularly disappointed in my old hometown. Los Angeles County voted 50.4-49.6 in favor of the ban. Amazing what some people think is their business. Perhaps if conservatives had focused more on the issues that challenge all Americans they would not have taken an old fashioned ass-whipping from sea to shining sea.

No news on whether Stuart Smalley (Al Franken) will indeed go down to defeat. It doesn't look good at this point. Additionally, Senator Smith in Oregon may hold on, but it is tight there too.

So far I have only missed North Dakota and Missouri. Missouri was tight, it was always going to be close, but I think Obama just didn't resonate with the bumpkins in the southern part of the state. Not sure if there was ever going to be a way to peel them away, but the speech Obama gave last night makes it clear that the politics of division and marginalization of opposition is over, for now at least.

I am tired and I have to get to work now! More later...

This just in...

It is being reported that Barack Obama has offered and Rahm Emanuel has accepted the job of Chief of Staff. I like Rahm Emanuel and I think he will do a good job, but I was holding out hope for former Senator Tom Daschle. I will have to wait and see where he lands. Perhaps in the cabinet or an ambassadorship. Time will tell.

This will free up a Congressional seat in addition to a Obama’s Senate seat from Illinois. There is speculation that Jesse Jackson III is lobbying hard for Obama’s Senate seat, but that others from the delegation are uncomfortable with that. More on this will develop. I’m going to bed!

America, I'm proud of you tonight!

In other news tonight:

Chris Shays loses his seat in Connecticut. There are no longer any Republican House members in New England.

Medical Marijuana is legalized in Massachusetts.

Massachusetts shoots down the repeal of the state income tax.

South Dakota has once again shot down a ban on abortion.

Still no word on the California gay marriage ban constitutional amendment. So far it looks like this will pass. This could be a down note for an otherwise happy day.

From John Kerry...

"Tonight we elected a President who has inspired a majority of Americans with his vision and policies, a man who is principally a leader for these times who happens to also be African American; and because of America’s stunning ability to move on and transform, to write a new chapter of our history, Barack Obama will be President during the 50th anniversary of the Civil Rights movement and the 150th anniversary of the Civil War.

"Tonight there are tears of joy and disbelief in small rural communities and inner cities, where for too long, some weren’t sure anything was really possible for them.

"Tonight new dreams are born and old truths are affirmed. Tonight we enter a new America, the best America, the America of our highest hopes."

Big night...

I am emotionally raw and cannot even begin to collect my thoughts. I am loving the fact that at this time (11:30 PM CST, on 11/4/08) I have only predicted North Dakota incorrectly. Here is a great picture!



and here is another one:



and another picture:

The Freak is predicting... (Part II)

Here is the worst case scenario that I can find evidence for:

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

The Freak is predicting...

Here is the best case scenario:

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Wassup.....

In Defense of Wonks!

David Brooks wrote a column in the October 28^th NY Times entitled The Behavioral Revolution that got under my skin. I never do this, but I couldn’t help myself. I wrote him an e-mail. Here it is:

David,

You had me hot as a pistol at the beginning of your October 28th column (Human Frailty). Your assessment of public policy analysis was particularly ill-informed. Have you ever read Eugene Bardach? It may not have been part of your History curriculum at Chicago, but I have read you long enough to know that you are fairly well read. I suggest his "A Practical Guide for Policy Analysis" (first class, first semester of any good Master of Public Policy program). In it he outlines the "the Eightfold Path." The first step on that path is to "define the problem." The failure you point out with the current fiscal breakdown was not a failure of policy analysis. I'd be surprised if there were very many public policy analysts involved in the effort to deregulate the financial sector. I think that tar baby belongs to our friends from the business school.

Despite your conservative leanings, I find myself agreeing with you more than my liberal conscience is fully comfortable with. I agree that the failure was in large part due to, as Nassim Taleb asserts, "the existence of inherent limitations and flaws in the way we think and act." But this problem was not totally unforeseen. Many economists, financial and policy analysts have spoken for some time of the overly complex nature of our financial system.

Do you concede that it is possible that the system was designed by many people "engaged in calculating their self-interest" and that the lack of regulation and oversight started a snowball rolling downhill that eventually morphed beyond the control and/or understanding of financial services "industry".

I am a pretty liberal guy, but even I don't think oppressive regulation is the answer (Jamie Galbraith, eat your heart out). But how about the government create some guidelines for financial analysts to operate within that seek to simplify the process and create transparency and then get out of the way and let them run wild like the pack of savages that they are. The trade off, of course there is always a trade off, would be that violating these parameters would be a criminal act punishable by some form of disbarment (similar to the legal world) for malpractice.

---

As a post-script I will add that the role of behavioral psychology is indeed lacking in public policy analysis. But that is a failure of implementation not the system for analysis of public policy. Unfortunately policy is usually analyzed in the context of partisanship. That assumes that a bias is guiding the analysis as opposed to the analysis guiding the ideology. I agree that the fallout from the financial collapse will be an emphasis on behavioral economics and that is a good thing.