Food for Thought

"The liberal candidate may not win, but the conservative candidate has got to become more liberal. The drift of humane society is in that direction."

-Bob Eckhardt, 1962

A brief return from hiatus for this... too good to be true!

Sometimes events occur that demand putting aside planned procedure to address them immediately. George W. Bush ducking not one, but two shoes deserves such an approach. Enjoy, I did.

Hilarious!!!

Obama Win Causes Obsessive Supporters To Realize How Empty Their Lives Are

More cabinet rumoring...

It's officially official:
1. Rahm Emanuel is in as COS
2. David Axelrod is in a "Senior Advisor" (nice generic title)
3. Transition economic advisors will be Robert Reich, Larry Summers, Warren Buffet, Bob Rubin, Governor Granholm, Paul Volcker, David Bonior, Roel Campos, William Daley, Roger Ferguson, Anne Mulcahy, Richard Parsons, Penny Pritzker, Eric Schmidt, Laura Tyson, and Antonio Villaraigosa (who Lego my Ego refers to as Villagrossa)

From the realm of idle rumoring:
1. Tom Daschle for HHS
2. Max Cleland for Army Secretary
3. John Kerry is lobbying for Secretary of State
4. Chuck Hagel for DOD
5. Bill Richardson for State
6. Deval Patrick for AG
7. Howard Dean for HHS

Here is my question; if every Democratic governor in the U.S. Goes into the cabinet, will there be any Democrats left to run the states???

This just in...

According to the Portland Oregonian blog (Michelle Roberts) political analyst Tim Hibbitts is predicting that Democrat Jeff Merkley will upset Senator Gordon Smith. He based this prediction based on outstanding votes to be counted. As of right now only 56% of Multnomah County (Portland) has been counted and is breaking sharply for the challenger.

Nothing written in stone!

Also, Senator Coleman and Al Franken are headed to a re-count with Coleman leading by 800 votes. More on this to come...

Update: the state has explained how they are recounting 3 million votes. Coleman has, in the interim declared victory. A bit premature, don't you think Normie?

The President-elect's cabinet

So far I am hearing:
1. Rahm Emanuel for Chief-of-Staff (I believe this is confirmed)
2. Napolitano, Pea and Daley for transition team
3. Gov. Napolitano for Attorney General (this would be a mistake, we need her in Phoenix),
4. RFK, Jr. for EPA Administrator (asked if he would take it, RFK said: "if asked, I will serve)
5. Jon Corzine for Treasury Secretary (I don't buy this)
6. Governor Rendell for DOE (I don't buy this either)
7. Vilsack for Agriculture
8. Steve Westly for DOE
9. Senator Lugar for Secretary of State (this would be a great pick)
10. Caroline Kennedy for Ed Secretary

I would urge caution. Most of this is likely wishful thinking mixed with hangover. Time will tell.

The speech heard 'round the world!

Illegal gay people...

It looks like California will pass the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. Statewide it is standing at 52-48 for it. I am particularly disappointed in my old hometown. Los Angeles County voted 50.4-49.6 in favor of the ban. Amazing what some people think is their business. Perhaps if conservatives had focused more on the issues that challenge all Americans they would not have taken an old fashioned ass-whipping from sea to shining sea.

No news on whether Stuart Smalley (Al Franken) will indeed go down to defeat. It doesn't look good at this point. Additionally, Senator Smith in Oregon may hold on, but it is tight there too.

So far I have only missed North Dakota and Missouri. Missouri was tight, it was always going to be close, but I think Obama just didn't resonate with the bumpkins in the southern part of the state. Not sure if there was ever going to be a way to peel them away, but the speech Obama gave last night makes it clear that the politics of division and marginalization of opposition is over, for now at least.

I am tired and I have to get to work now! More later...

This just in...

It is being reported that Barack Obama has offered and Rahm Emanuel has accepted the job of Chief of Staff. I like Rahm Emanuel and I think he will do a good job, but I was holding out hope for former Senator Tom Daschle. I will have to wait and see where he lands. Perhaps in the cabinet or an ambassadorship. Time will tell.

This will free up a Congressional seat in addition to a Obama’s Senate seat from Illinois. There is speculation that Jesse Jackson III is lobbying hard for Obama’s Senate seat, but that others from the delegation are uncomfortable with that. More on this will develop. I’m going to bed!

America, I'm proud of you tonight!

In other news tonight:

Chris Shays loses his seat in Connecticut. There are no longer any Republican House members in New England.

Medical Marijuana is legalized in Massachusetts.

Massachusetts shoots down the repeal of the state income tax.

South Dakota has once again shot down a ban on abortion.

Still no word on the California gay marriage ban constitutional amendment. So far it looks like this will pass. This could be a down note for an otherwise happy day.

From John Kerry...

"Tonight we elected a President who has inspired a majority of Americans with his vision and policies, a man who is principally a leader for these times who happens to also be African American; and because of America’s stunning ability to move on and transform, to write a new chapter of our history, Barack Obama will be President during the 50th anniversary of the Civil Rights movement and the 150th anniversary of the Civil War.

"Tonight there are tears of joy and disbelief in small rural communities and inner cities, where for too long, some weren’t sure anything was really possible for them.

"Tonight new dreams are born and old truths are affirmed. Tonight we enter a new America, the best America, the America of our highest hopes."

Big night...

I am emotionally raw and cannot even begin to collect my thoughts. I am loving the fact that at this time (11:30 PM CST, on 11/4/08) I have only predicted North Dakota incorrectly. Here is a great picture!



and here is another one:



and another picture:

The Freak is predicting... (Part II)

Here is the worst case scenario that I can find evidence for:

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

The Freak is predicting...

Here is the best case scenario:

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Wassup.....

In Defense of Wonks!

David Brooks wrote a column in the October 28^th NY Times entitled The Behavioral Revolution that got under my skin. I never do this, but I couldn’t help myself. I wrote him an e-mail. Here it is:

David,

You had me hot as a pistol at the beginning of your October 28th column (Human Frailty). Your assessment of public policy analysis was particularly ill-informed. Have you ever read Eugene Bardach? It may not have been part of your History curriculum at Chicago, but I have read you long enough to know that you are fairly well read. I suggest his "A Practical Guide for Policy Analysis" (first class, first semester of any good Master of Public Policy program). In it he outlines the "the Eightfold Path." The first step on that path is to "define the problem." The failure you point out with the current fiscal breakdown was not a failure of policy analysis. I'd be surprised if there were very many public policy analysts involved in the effort to deregulate the financial sector. I think that tar baby belongs to our friends from the business school.

Despite your conservative leanings, I find myself agreeing with you more than my liberal conscience is fully comfortable with. I agree that the failure was in large part due to, as Nassim Taleb asserts, "the existence of inherent limitations and flaws in the way we think and act." But this problem was not totally unforeseen. Many economists, financial and policy analysts have spoken for some time of the overly complex nature of our financial system.

Do you concede that it is possible that the system was designed by many people "engaged in calculating their self-interest" and that the lack of regulation and oversight started a snowball rolling downhill that eventually morphed beyond the control and/or understanding of financial services "industry".

I am a pretty liberal guy, but even I don't think oppressive regulation is the answer (Jamie Galbraith, eat your heart out). But how about the government create some guidelines for financial analysts to operate within that seek to simplify the process and create transparency and then get out of the way and let them run wild like the pack of savages that they are. The trade off, of course there is always a trade off, would be that violating these parameters would be a criminal act punishable by some form of disbarment (similar to the legal world) for malpractice.

---

As a post-script I will add that the role of behavioral psychology is indeed lacking in public policy analysis. But that is a failure of implementation not the system for analysis of public policy. Unfortunately policy is usually analyzed in the context of partisanship. That assumes that a bias is guiding the analysis as opposed to the analysis guiding the ideology. I agree that the fallout from the financial collapse will be an emphasis on behavioral economics and that is a good thing.

Attacks ain't working

I have found it very interesting that the guy everyone labeled as media savvy and in touch has had such a tin ear in this election cycle. McCain was able to say the right things to the right crowds in the Republican primaries. I suspect that is mostly because the Obama-Clinton race sucked all the air out of the room and few Independents crossed into the GOP race in states where that was available to them. The McCain campaign seems to not have realized this and as a result really never tacked back to center after. They went to the base pick for VP and while Sarah Palin has energized Republicans it has hurt McCain among Independents and conservative (potential) crossover Democrats. It is odd and conspicuously amateur to concede the center in a national political campaign. Particular when two of the three legs of the Republican base were already lukewarm on the idea of a McCain presidency.

McCain desperately wanted to run on heroism, honor and steady experience but it was a flawed plan from the get-go. I disagree that this is a change election and that experience was never going to win out. You can't simultaneously want to be the experienced candidate and then bash the system within which you got your experience. It reminds me of a card that my mother go my father for his birthday one year. It had a picture of a birthday cake and a woman in a bikini. On the outside it said: "This is Edith and a cake." On the inside it said: " You can't have your cake and Edith too." By trying to have it both ways, McCain has invited the idea that he is erratic.

McCain's "maverick" persona didn't help either. The fact that he has been unpredictable his entire career looked fresh and independent until it became clear that with the exception of foreign policy he really isn't that well versed on the issues. I think the fact that he has been able to work at issues from different perspectives is because he lacks the wisdom and intelligence to ask penetrating questions and base decisions on logic or reason. Instead McCain shoots from the hip and it makes him dead wrong a lot. It also means that he is right some time. McCain is right, the surge has worked from a military perspective but his lack of nuance makes it abundantly clear that he just doesn't get it that the point was to succeed militarily so the Iraqi's could succeed politically. That just has not happened. Obama may be unable to acknowledge the the military tactic of the surge succeeded, but McCain is equally unable to acknowledge that the surge failed politically.

So now we are left with an attack on personality and it just isn't connecting. Once again, McCain doesn't get it. The American people don't believe him on Ayers and ACORN. They see Obama in debates, hear his steady voice on the economy and the fact that he is utterly unflappable and they are genuinely impressed. McCain is right; if Obama wins, sunlight will not suddenly shining out of his backside. But, as the Chicago Tribune said in their endorsement, Obama "has the intelligence to understand the grave economic and national security risks that face us, to listen to good advice and make careful decisions."

The NY Times poll on negative attacks showed that they are hurting McCain. Here is the chart:


That ain't nothing. Being bi-partisan is often confused with abandoning your ideological bearings. That is wrongheaded and ultimately very unappealing in a leader. I think Americans want a leader who holds his ideological beliefs as sacred but isn't stubborn and can work with people who think differently. McCain has shown that ability, but his lack of command of the fundamentals on major issues is a problem I believe he would listen to a bunch of experts that hold different positions on an issue, like economics, and he would be paralyzed by the lack of consensus. Obama has the ability to listen to a bunch of people who differ, ask hard questions on issues that he is not an expert in and build consensus. We need conservative and liberal voices. They all need to be heard. But we then need a President that focuses that energy. That is leadership. That is what America needs.

Da Bears!!!

The Chicago Tribune is on board the Barry Express as well! It isn’t everyday that a conservative paper (which I tend to enjoy picking up as I pass through O’Hare International Airport in Chicago) endorses a liberal Democrat. That is the nature of the world we live in. In their endorsement they said:

“We can provide some assurance. We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.

“We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.”

They don’t really need to say any more than that, do they?

But they do! They also say:

“Obama envisions a change in the way we deal with one another in politics and government. His opponents may say this is empty, abstract rhetoric. In fact, it is hard to imagine how we are going to deal with the grave domestic and foreign crises we face without an end to the savagery and a return to civility in politics.”

“We do, though, think Obama would govern as much more of a pragmatic centrist than many people expect.

“We know first-hand that Obama seeks out and listens carefully and respectfully to people who disagree with him. He builds consensus.”

“When Obama said at the 2004 Democratic Convention that we weren't a nation of red states and blue states, he spoke of union the way Abraham Lincoln did.”

“It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States.”

Very powerful indeed. This type of faith in the “better angels of our nature” is very Lincolnesque indeed!

LAT weighs in...

The Los Angeles Times has weighed in. They have endorsed Barack Obama for President, saying:

“The excitement of Obama's early campaign was amplified by that newness. But as the presidential race draws to its conclusion, it is Obama's character and temperament that come to the fore. It is his steadiness. His maturity.”

“…the presidential campaign has rendered McCain nearly unrecognizable. His selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was, as a short-term political tactic, brilliant. It was also irresponsible, as Palin is the most unqualified vice presidential nominee of a major party in living memory.”

“Obama's selection also was telling. He might have scored a steeper bump in the polls by making a more dramatic choice than the capable and experienced Joe Biden. But for all the excitement of his own candidacy, Obama has offered more competence than drama.”

“We may one day look back on this presidential campaign in wonder. We may marvel that Obama's critics called him an elitist, as if an Ivy League education were a source of embarrassment, and belittled his eloquence, as if a gift with words were suddenly a defect. In fact, Obama is educated and eloquent, sober and exciting, steady and mature. He represents the nation as it is, and as it aspires to be.”

Nicely said from a newspaper that has gone from “world class” to “world class joke” in a decade. Maybe the LA Times is turning things around. One can always hope. It could not get much worse.