Friday, October 20, 2006

Freak Politics 2006 Midterm Election Predictions.

The United States House of Representatives will swing over into Democratic Control. I believe that Paul Krugman's analogy of a levee and a storm surge is quite good. If the storm surge is enough to breach the levee it will flow far inland. I believe that the surge will be very large indeed.

I am predicting that the House split after November 7th will be:
Democrats: 228
Republicans: 207

An advantage of 21 seats, letter the Speaker battle begin!

The United States Senate is a little more up in the air. As we know, the Democrats need a net 6 seats to recapture control of the Senate. News today reports that the Republican National Committee has pulled it’s money from 5 of the 7 key races. They have pulled money from Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana, Virginia, and Michigan. They are pouring all their resources into Missouri and Tennessee believing that this creates their best chance to hold onto the Senate. I believe that this is a mistake, perhaps the first mistake that the Rove political strategy team has made. Hal Ford in Tennessee is young, charismatic and pragmatic. He should be able to hold off Bill Corker in the battle for Bill Frist’s seat. Missouri will be close too, but I believe that Claire McCaskill has enough momentum.

I am predicting that the Senate split after November 7th will be:
Democrats: 52
Republicans: 48

An advantage of 4 seats, don’t mess it up Majority Leader Reid!

The Dems will win in Rhode Island, Connecticut (likely Lieberman), New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. The only question mark in this is Virginia. If the Democrats had a good candidate this would be a no brainer, but James Webb is a terrible campaigner and has been unable to build momentum to build on Macaca’s mistakes!

I don’t know much about all the Governors races, but I am predicting after November 7th the split will be:

Democrats: 30
Republicans: 20

The tidal wave of 1994 has finally rolled back!

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