Thursday, January 03, 2008

Let’s keep our eye on the ball people...

Iowa Caucuses tonight, here is my take:

When I say that they are done, I don't mean that they will drop out, but I that I think their chance of winning the nomination is done and over with.


· Romney, needs to win Iowa to hold on in NH, if he doesn't, he's done...

· Thompson, not only done, never got off the ground

· Huckabee, could win Iowa, but won't even rate in NH, May play in South Carolina, but has little money to carry on for long without winning in Iowa... done

· Giuliani, idiotic strategy... done

· McCain, can't win, but certainly the most qualified of the bunch. He'll win NH if Huckabee wins Iowa and he gets over 10% in Iowa

· Ron Paul, hilariously done


· Edwards, needs to win Iowa, or he's done

· Obama, probably needs to win Iowa, or he'll do his best Howard Dean fizzle. Obama is banking on a notoriously myopic and flakey group to carry him and they let Howard Dean down four years ago in Iowa. He could win and it would not surprise me, but I am skeptical of the young vote until they actually deliver. They have not delivered since McGovern in 1972.

· Hillary, will win NH if Edwards wins Iowa and she doesn't flop in Iowa. If Obama wins Iowa, she might be done. She might win Iowa, but I wouldn't bet on it. She will stay in for a while, but I don't see her winning anything if she loses both Iowa and NH. Dems tend to be all over the map, but they like to back a winner and like Kerry in 2004, if Obama wins both Iowa and NH, that's the ball game. If Edwards wins Iowa it will be harder for him to grab NH. NH would then be a toss up between Obama and Clinton, it depends on who comes in second. They both have the money to fight for a while, but Clinton has deeper pockets.

· Biden, good man, smart man, running for Secretary of State, done

· Dodd, good man, smart man, done

· Richardson, good man, smart man, possible VP candidate, done

No comments: