Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Geeking out with exit polls!

I have been reviewing the CNN Exit Polls from the Texas Primary and have found some very interesting information.

Voting by age:
18-64 (87%)
BO – 50%
HC – 49%

65+ (13%)
HC – 65%
BO – 32%

The coots carried Clinton last night.

Gender split:
Men (43%)
BO – 51%
HC – 47%

Women (57%)
HC – 54%
BO – 45%

The gender split was not as pronounced as it has been. It seems like Clinton’s appeal to women is muted south of Mason-Dixon. The thing that got Obama here was huge turnout by women. Judging from my caucus, particularly older women (50+)

Race/Ethnicity Split:
White (46%)
HC – 55%
BO – 44%

African-American (19%)
HC – 16%
BO – 84%

Latino (32%)
HC – 66%
BO – 32%

More likely to win in November:
Hillary Clinton (40%)
Voted for HC – 93%
Voted for BO – 6%

Barack Obama (52%)
Voted for HC – 17%
Voted for BO – 81%

Can I just ask? 40 percent of Democratic Primary voters thought Clinton was most likely to win in November, 52% Obama was more likely…

…do the other 8% have an IQ high enough to breath, let alone vote?

By Educational Attainment:
Less than a college degree (57%)
HC – 57%
BO – 42%

At least a college degree (43%)
BO – 55%
HC – 42%

Why do we always get screwed by our plumber? He over bills us and then votes the wrong way.

People who thought gender was important:
Most Important (8%)
HC – 64%
BO – 36%

One of Several Factors (15%)
HC – 58%
BO – 42%

Not Important (75%)
BO – 50%
HC – 48%

By feelings on how to handle illegal immigration:
Path to citizenship (52%)
BO – 51%
HC – 47%

Temporary Worker Program (26%)
HC – 52%
BO – 47%

Deport them (18%) [18% of Democratic Voters!!!]
HC – 57%
BO – 41%

So Hillary won both the Hispanic and the Minuteman vote. Which side got it wrong?

By Income:
Less than $100K (75%)
HC – 52%
BO – 47%

Greater than $100K (25%)
BO – 56%
HC – 48%

Less than $50K (39%)
HC – 52%
BO – 47%

Greater than $50K (61%)
HC – 51%
BO – 47%

By Party Affiliation:
Democrats (66%)
HC – 53%
BO – 46%

Republicans (9%)
HC – 46%
BO – 53%

Independents (25%)
HC – 48%
BO – 49%

Would be satisfied if…
Hillary Clinton is the nominee:
Yes (70%)
Voted for HC – 67%
Voted for BO – 32%

No (30%)
Voted for HC – 10%
Voted for BO – 87%

Barack Obama is the nominee:
Yes (66%)
Voted for HC – 31%
Voted for BO – 68%

No (32%)
Voted for HC – 91%
Voted for BO – 7%

Barack Obama won among urban voters: 51% to 48%
Hillary Clinton won among suburban voters: 51% to 47%
Hillary Clinton won among rural voters: 61% to 37%

Super Delegates should vote based on:
Who can win in November (33%):
Voted for HC – 61%
Voted for BO – 38%

The results of the primaries (62%):
Voted for HC – 45%
Voted for BO – 54%

Candidates Attacked Unfairly:
Only Clinton (25%):
Voted for HC – 15%
Voted for BO – 85%

Only Obama (7%):
Voted for HC – 80%
Voted for BO – 20%

Both (28%):
Voted for HC – 62%
Voted for BO – 35%

Neither (36%):
Voted for HC – 61%
Voted for BO – 38%

This is even more interesting when asked differently:

Did Hillary Clinton attack unfairly?
Yes (52%):
Voted for HC – 40%
Voted for BO – 32%

No (43%):
Voted for HC – 64%
Voted for BO – 35%

Did Barack Obama attack unfairly?
Yes (35):
Voted for HC – 66%
Voted for BO – 32%

No (60%):
Voted for HC – 42%
Voted for BO – 57%

Overall, a majority of Democratic voters thought that Hillary’s attacks were unfair. In addition, a larger majority of Dems felt that Obama did not attack Clinton unfairly.

Voting by region:
East Texas (20%)
HC - 53%
BO - 45%

Dallas/Ft. Worth (16%)
HC - 41%
BO - 56%

Houston (13%)
HC - 45%
BO - 55%

South-Central Texas (19%)
HC - 42%
BO - 58%

West Texas (8%)
HC - 57%
BO - 41%

Rio Grande Valley (23%)
HC - 65%
BO - 33%

So, Barack Obama won the three delegate rich regions of the state. We’ll wait for the apportionment of delegates to be officially tallied.

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